When it comes to Capcom, its a real love/hate relationship. They can usually churn out some really great games, but their main problem is that they simply cannot market something to save their lives. So why do they think a new game in untested waters will sell more than any other game they've ever released?
That game just happens to be Dragon's Dogma. And I'll be honest, it looks pretty fantastic. There's a chance that it could turn out to have a lot of problems, but at the moment it looks like a must buy. The problem is Capcom seems to think it'll be their best selling game ever despite the fact that they've barely marketed it to anyone. Read on to find out what I mean.
In a recent interview, Dragon's Dogma producer Hideaki Itsuno stated that it should be able to attain ten million sales worldwide, and at least a million sales in Japan alone. While that may be possible for a huge series like Call of Duty or The Elder Scrolls games, it simply isn't going to happen. Especially since we're talking about a new Capcom game.
The reason I know for a fact that Dragon's Dogma won't reach anywhere near ten million sales is simple. Every version of Street Fighter IV combined only equals out to about six million copies total, and that's for one of Capcom's biggest franchises. The numbers don't change much for Capcom's other biggest franchise, Resident Evil 5.
Seriously, look at all of this adventure
And those sales are worldwide. When you start cutting it down to individual countries, the numbers become even smaller. While it is certainly possible for Capcom's bigger games to reach the coveted million sales number in Japan, odds are it would only happen after the game became a series, or over the span of a few years.
Even worse, there has been practically zero advertising for the game outside of events like E3. While advertising might be bigger in places like Japan, that still doesn't mean the game is going to pull anywhere close to the "assured one million sales" that Capcom is hoping for. Dark Souls, a game I constantly see being compared to Dragon's Dogma, sold around 400,000 copies in Japan despite being a sequel to an established series. Pretty strong numbers... but it isn't a million.
How does any of this information point towards Dragon's Dogma not getting a sequel? Well, let's assume Capcom really believes they'll sell a million copies in Japan. That means they're going to put at least a million copies out on the market. When it inevitably doesn't sell as much as they had hoped for, it'll start seeing massive markdowns just to move the extra copies, much like Final Fantasy XIII-2 had to deal with.
I don't think you understand... ADVENTURE!
When a movie doesn't bring in the estimated amount of money the studio had hoped for the first weekend it releases in theaters, then the company cuts a large amount of the advertising. Less advertising equals less sales making the product a flop. It works the same for games as well. If Dragon's Dogma flops, then odds are Capcom will stop work on any possible sequels.
If you ask me, they're expecting way too much. Seriously, ten million sales?! The entire Uncharted series just broke thirteen million. That's four games in a flagship series over the span of half a decade. Good luck with that ten million, Capcom; you're going to need it.
As always, thanks for reading! Do you think Capcom will be able to pull of the impossible and sell ten million copies of a game that isn't being marketed? Do you think they're fooling themselves with the thought of getting a million copies in Japan alone? Why not comment below and let me know!?